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Clarify how infections are estimated
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jamesmbaazam committed Feb 21, 2024
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2 changes: 1 addition & 1 deletion README.Rmd
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Expand Up @@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ Forecasting is also supported for the time-varying reproduction number, infectio

<details> <summary> More details </summary>

`{EpiNow2}` estimates the time-varying reproduction number on cases by date of infection (using a similar approach to that implemented in [`{EpiEstim}`](https://github.com/mrc-ide/EpiEstim)). Imputed infections are then mapped to observed data (for example cases by date of report) via a series of uncertain delay distributions (in the examples in the package documentation these are an incubation period and a reporting delay) and a reporting model that can include weekly periodicity.
`{EpiNow2}` estimates the time-varying reproduction number on cases by date of infection (using a similar approach to that implemented in [`{EpiEstim}`](https://github.com/mrc-ide/EpiEstim)). True infections treated as latent and unobserved, estimated, and then mapped to observed data (for example cases by date of report) via a series of uncertain delay distributions (in the examples in the package documentation these are an incubation period and a reporting delay) and a reporting model that can include weekly periodicity.

Uncertainty is propagated from all inputs into the final parameter estimates, helping to mitigate spurious findings. This is handled internally. The time-varying reproduction estimates and the uncertain generation time also give time-varying estimates of the rate of growth.

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11 changes: 6 additions & 5 deletions README.md
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Expand Up @@ -39,11 +39,12 @@ More details

`{EpiNow2}` estimates the time-varying reproduction number on cases by
date of infection (using a similar approach to that implemented in
[`{EpiEstim}`](https://github.com/mrc-ide/EpiEstim)). Imputed infections
are then mapped to observed data (for example cases by date of report)
via a series of uncertain delay distributions (in the examples in the
package documentation these are an incubation period and a reporting
delay) and a reporting model that can include weekly periodicity.
[`{EpiEstim}`](https://github.com/mrc-ide/EpiEstim)). True infections
treated as latent and unobserved, estimated, and then mapped to observed
data (for example cases by date of report) via a series of uncertain
delay distributions (in the examples in the package documentation these
are an incubation period and a reporting delay) and a reporting model
that can include weekly periodicity.

Uncertainty is propagated from all inputs into the final parameter
estimates, helping to mitigate spurious findings. This is handled
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