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Offhand, it looks like we would start with a uniform prior distribution as to which taco was steak, then there would be a "decision," then observed evidence of one of the not-chosen tacos being a bean taco, then another decision (to switch or not). So it sounds a lot like this would involve a Dynamic Bayesian Network, Universes, and Decisions. But as a Figaro newbie, I'm struggling to put all of this together. Any advice would be most welcome.