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Pop structure and circumcision #264

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110 changes: 52 additions & 58 deletions Zim_parameters.sas
Original file line number Diff line number Diff line change
Expand Up @@ -8,49 +8,26 @@ caldate1=1984;
caldate_never_dot=1984;
startyr = 1991 + 0.25;

* inc_cat; inc_cat = 1 ;


* SEXUAL BEHAVIOUR;

* ych_risk_beh_newp; %sample(ych_risk_beh_newp, 0.5 0.6 0.7 , 0.4 0.3 0.3);
* ych_risk_beh_ep; %sample_uniform(ych_risk_beh_ep, 0.8 0.9 0.95);
* p_rred_p; %sample_uniform(p_rred_p, 0.4 0.5 0.6);
* p_hsb_p; %sample(p_hsb_p, 0.05 0.08 0.15 0.25, 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25);
* newp_factor; %sample_uniform(newp_factor, 1 2 3 5 );
* ych2_risk_beh_newp; %sample(ych2_risk_beh_newp,
0.95 0.99 1 ,
0.3 0.3 4 );
* inc_cat; inc_cat = 4 ;


* HIV TESTING;

* date_start_testing; date_start_testing = 2005 ;
* test_targeting; *%sample(test_targeting, 1.1 1.3 1.5, 0.4 0.4 0.2); *Vale - 20211026, not specific to Zim before;
*%sample(test_targeting, 1 1.25 1.5, 0.6 0.3 0.1); *Vale - 20211123;
%sample(test_targeting, 1 1.1 1.3, 0.7 0.2 0.1);*Vale - 20220105;
* an_lin_incr_test; *%sample(an_lin_incr_test,
0.0100 0.015 0.0200 ,
0.50 0.50 0.00 );
*%sample(an_lin_incr_test,
0.0100 0.015 0.0200 ,
0.70 0.30 0.00 );
%sample(an_lin_incr_test,
* test_targeting; %sample(test_targeting, 1 1.1 1.3, 0.7 0.2 0.1);*Vale - 20220105;
* an_lin_incr_test; %sample(an_lin_incr_test,
0.005 0.01 0.015,
0.6 0.3 0.1);*Vale - 20220105;
* date_test_rate_plateau; date_test_rate_plateau = 2019 ;
* fold_rate_decr_test_future;*%sample_uniform(fold_rate_decr_test_future, 0.1 0.2 0.33);
%sample_uniform(fold_rate_decr_test_future, 0.00125 0.00165 0.0025 0.00375);
* fold_rate_decr_test_future;%sample_uniform(fold_rate_decr_test_future, 0.25 0.33 0.5 0.75);

* rate_anc_inc; *%sample_uniform(rate_anc_inc, 0.005 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.10); *Mar2023;
%sample(rate_anc_inc, 0.005 0.01 0.03 0.05 0.10, 0.15 0.15 0.3 0.2 0.2);
* rate_anc_inc; %sample_uniform(rate_anc_inc, 0.025 0.03 0.035);
* prob_test_2ndtrim; %sample_uniform(prob_test_2ndtrim, 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.0 0.95 1.00);
* prob_test_postdel; prob_test_postdel=0.95;
* prob_test_postdel; %sample_uniform(prob_test_postdel, 0.25 0.5 0.75);

* NATURAL PROGRESSION AND RISK OF HIV RELATED CONDITIONS;
*Vale - 20211026: all the changes in the section "NATURAL PROGRESSION...." are taken from SA;
* fold_change_in_risk_base_rate;
*%sample_uniform(fold_change_in_risk_base_rate, 0.7 0.8 0.9);
%sample_uniform(fold_change_in_risk_base_rate, 0.85 1.0); *Vale - 20211123;
* it is 0.85 rather than 1 in south africa parameter sets, and 1 in Malawi as there is no evidence
that this lower rate holds in malawi ;
Expand All @@ -69,43 +46,60 @@ rate_ch_art_init_str_9 = 0.1 ;
* rate_int_choice; %sample_uniform(rate_int_choice, 0.0020 0.0030 0.0040);*Vale - 20220105;


* SEX WORKERS;
* base_rate_sw; *%sample(base_rate_sw, 0.0015 0.0020 0.0025, 0.2 0.2 0.6);*Vale - 20211026, not specific to Zim before;
*Vale - 20211123, removed;
* base_rate_stop_sexwork; *%sample_uniform(base_rate_stop_sexwork, 0.015 0.030 0.045);*Vale - 20211026, not specific to Zim before;
*Vale - 20211123, removed;
* SEX WORKERS;

* base_rate_sw; %sample(base_rate_sw, 0.0014 0.0018, 0.7 0.3);*20231002;
* base_rate_stop_sexwork; %sample(base_rate_stop_sexwork, 0.010 0.015 0.020, 0.25 0.25 0.5);


* rr_sw_age_3549; rr_sw_age_3549 = 0.25;
* age_effect_stop_sexwork; *No need to specify as it was hard coded and the output was ok;

* sw_trans_matrix; %sample(sw_trans_matrix, 1 2 3, 0.10 0.45 0.45);
* sw_art_disadv; %sample(sw_art_disadv, 0 1, 0.10 0.90);
if sw_art_disadv=1 then do;
%sample_uniform(sw_higher_int, 2 5 10 20);
%sample_uniform(rel_sw_lower_adh, 0.8 0.9);
%sample_uniform(sw_higher_prob_loss_at_diag, 2 5 10);
end;

* rate_engage_sw_program; %sample_uniform(rate_engage_sw_program, 0.10 0.20 0.30);
* rate_disengage_sw_program; %sample_uniform(rate_disengage_sw_program, 0.01 0.03);

* date_sw_prog_intro; date_sw_prog_intro=2010;
* sw_program; %sample(sw_program, 0 1, 0.2 0.8);sw_program=1;*Discuss;
if sw_program = 1 then do;
%sample_uniform(rate_engage_sw_program, 0.10 0.20);
%sample_uniform(rate_disengage_sw_program, 0.02 0.05);
end;

***Change these parameters as are assuming higher attendance than in core and Zim has Sisters program in place;
* effect_sw_prog_newp; %sample_uniform(effect_sw_prog_newp, 0.05 0.10);
* effect_sw_prog_6mtest; %sample_uniform(effect_sw_prog_6mtest, 0.20 0.35 0.50);
* effect_sw_prog_int; %sample_uniform(effect_sw_prog_int, 0.30 0.50 0.70);
* effect_sw_prog_adh; %sample_uniform(effect_sw_prog_adh, 0.10 0.15 0.25);
* effect_sw_prog_lossdiag; %sample_uniform(effect_sw_prog_lossdiag, 0.30 0.50 0.70);
* effect_sw_prog_prep_any; %sample_uniform(effect_sw_prog_prep_any, 0.50 0.75);
* effect_sw_prog_pers_sti; %sample_uniform(effect_sw_prog_pers_sti, 0.50 0.75);

* CIRCUMCISION;

* circ_inc_rate; *circ_inc_rate = 0.001;
*%sample(circ_inc_rate,
0.001 0.003 0.01 0.1,
0.1 0.6 0.2 0.1);*Vale - 20211026;
*%sample(circ_inc_rate, 0.001 0.002 0.003,
0.25 0.5 0.25);*Vale - 20211104;
%sample(circ_inc_rate, 0.0001 0.001 0.002,
* circ_inc_rate; %sample(circ_inc_rate, 0.0001 0.001 0.002,
0.25 0.5 0.25);
* prob_birth_circ; *prob_birth_circ = 0.2 ;
%sample(prob_birth_circ,
* prob_birth_circ; %sample(prob_birth_circ,
0.05 0.1 0.15,
0.25 0.5 0.25); *Vale - 20211026;

* rel_incr_circ_post_2013; *%sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2013,
0.8 1 3 7,
0.10 0.25 0.25 0.40);
*if circ_inc_rate=0.1 then rel_incr_circ_post_2013=min(rel_incr_circ_post_2013, 1);
*%sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2013,
1 3 5,
0.25 0.5 0.25);
%sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2013,
4 5 6,
0.25 0.5 0.25);

***Higher circ post 2015 - adding this here as if we increase the above, we will miss the DHS data point in 2015 on circ prev;
* rel_incr_circ_post_2015; %sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2015,
7 8 9,
0.35 0.5 0.20);
*abs_decr_birth_circ; %sample(abs_decr_birth_circ,
0 0.002 0.004,
0.20 0.20 0.60 );

* rel_incr_circ_post_2013; %sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2013,
2 3 4,
0.25 0.5 0.25); *Vale - 20230823;
* rel_incr_circ_post_2023; %sample(rel_incr_circ_post_2023,
2 3 4,
0.25 0.5 0.25); *Vale - 20231010;


***Too many people on PrEP;
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