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Update ECDC-soca_simplex.yml
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RokGrah authored Mar 21, 2024
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Expand Up @@ -7,5 +7,6 @@ model_contributors:
affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
email: [email protected]
team_model_designation: primary
data_inputs: "Historical ILIARIRates data as provided by RespiCast and ECDC"
methods: "Using historical data patterns with highest similarity to current data to foreast the future values"
methods_long: "Model consists of 1) taking 'm' latest data points, 2) find 'n' closest neighbours from all historical data using L2-norm, 3) use the next data time point from each historical data points, 4) use data from point 3 to fit a log-normal distribution , 5) use the log-normal distirbution to estimate the quantiles/distribution, 6) return to step 3 but use two data points ahead for estimations of horizon 2, etc for horizon 3 and 4, 7) find optimal values of 'n' and 'm for a given country, using past 4 weeks of forecasts."

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