forked from european-modelling-hubs/ari-forecast-hub_archive
-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 0
Commit
This commit does not belong to any branch on this repository, and may belong to a fork outside of the repository.
- Loading branch information
Showing
1 changed file
with
1 addition
and
0 deletions.
There are no files selected for viewing
This file contains bidirectional Unicode text that may be interpreted or compiled differently than what appears below. To review, open the file in an editor that reveals hidden Unicode characters.
Learn more about bidirectional Unicode characters
Original file line number | Diff line number | Diff line change |
---|---|---|
|
@@ -7,5 +7,6 @@ model_contributors: | |
affiliation: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control | ||
email: [email protected] | ||
team_model_designation: primary | ||
data_inputs: "Historical ILIARIRates data as provided by RespiCast and ECDC" | ||
methods: "Using historical data patterns with highest similarity to current data to foreast the future values" | ||
methods_long: "Model consists of 1) taking 'm' latest data points, 2) find 'n' closest neighbours from all historical data using L2-norm, 3) use the next data time point from each historical data points, 4) use data from point 3 to fit a log-normal distribution , 5) use the log-normal distirbution to estimate the quantiles/distribution, 6) return to step 3 but use two data points ahead for estimations of horizon 2, etc for horizon 3 and 4, 7) find optimal values of 'n' and 'm for a given country, using past 4 weeks of forecasts." |