The goal of the project is to check whether ther exist "Intelligence of the many" (Schwarmintelligenz) in the case of bets on football games. For that I scraped community prediction (with up to 90000 user predicting a matchday) from WDR. Than I downloaded the bet quotes + results for these games. The question now was if it is possible to earn money, if I bet 1€ on every game regarding what the the majority of the useres have bet. First I just bet on the favorit (on the team, that the majority of the users bet on) Second I bet on over/under 2.5 goals (based on the goals predictions per Team of the users) Third I bet on the trend (1x / x2 -> that the favorite team will not loose) --> Result: In each case I would have lost money (19.11.2020 , not much but still lost)
In the end I tried some ML Approaches just. Also with those predections it is not possible to win money (19.11.2020)
Just run the main skript and then you can see the results. Than you can check some more stats in the stats file.