README.md

Uncertainty quantification for machine learning at Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere

This repository is a companion to the following journal paper:

Haynes, K., R. Lagerquist, M. McGraw, K. Musgrave, and I. Ebert-Uphoff, 2022: "Creating and evaluating uncertainty estimates with neural networks for environmental-science applications." Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems, under review.

This repository contains several Jupyter notebooks for implementing the methods discussed in the paper -- both the UQ methods themselves and the evaluation methods for uncertainty estimates.

• classification_mc_dropout.ipynb implements MC dropout for digit classification.
• classification_npdp.ipynb implements quantile regression for digit classification, using a special NN architecture that prevents quantile-crossing. Both notebooks use the spread-skill plot and discard test to evaluate uncertainty estimates.
• crps_loss.ipynb implements the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) as a loss function for ensemble prediction (EP).
• regression_multi_datasets.ipynb allows the user to select one UQ approach (PDP, EP, or MC dropout), then compares the results across seven synthetic datasets. It uses four evaluation graphics (the attributes diagram, spread-skill plot, discard test, and PIT histogram) and eight evaluation scores (MSESS, SSRAT, SSREL, MF, DI, PITD, CRPS, and IGN).
• regression_multi_model.ipynb allows the user to select one synthetic dataset, then compares the results across the three UQ approaches, using the same evaluation tools.