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Empiricism.html
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Empiricism.html
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<h1 id="post-title">Think Empirically</h1>
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<h1 id="concrete-examples">Concrete examples</h1>
<p>Wow! Thinking with empirical examples seems to work way better than just abstract theorizing. I was trying to work out the scientific method using one simple concrete example. Suddenly, I was forced to understand that I had forgotten some important facts about hypotheses. I had forgotten that I needed to have a causal model making the predictions, not just a bunch of predictions by themselves. One concrete example did what a week of theorizing didn’t.</p>
<h1 id="how-much-time-to-spend-optimizing-something">How much time to spend optimizing something?</h1>
<p>Look at this XKCD comic: <a href="http://xkcd.com/1205/">Is It Worth The Time?</a></p>
<h1 id="study-empirical-resources">Study empirical resources</h1>
<p>Test this idea: write down the causal structure for the paper. For example, if it’s a memory paper having a table of error rates and number of training trials, show the putative causal structure: number of trials -> error rate. This way, you can figure out what hypotheses they’re actually trying to test.</p>
<h1 id="multiple-stage-fallacy">Multiple-stage fallacy</h1>
<p>Eliezer’s facebook post on this: <a href="https://www.facebook.com/yudkowsky/posts/10154036150109228">link</a>.</p>
<blockquote>
<p>Breaking down an innocent proposition into (counts) 31 stages and “eliciting” probabilities for the stages engenders a visceral sense of indignation in me. It is a code violation to do that and then tell people they have given their own opinion.</p>
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<h1 id="if-you-want-something-to-improve-you-have-to-work-on-it">If you want something to improve, you have to work on it</h1>
<p>For example, if I want my biceps to be as big as those of my gym buddies, then I have to do biceps exercises every week instead of just skipping them. Ditto for triceps or chest or whatever. Similarly, if I want to get bigger muscles, I have to hit the gym every day like my friends instead of going whenever I feel like it.</p>
<div class="info">Created: August 12, 2015</div>
<div class="info">Last modified: April 7, 2017</div>
<div class="info">Status: in-progress</div>
<div class="info"><b>Tags</b>: empiricism</div>
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