We've been hosting a live show weekly on Mondays at 5p for about an hour, and recording them all; here is the recording from January 9th, 2023.
Bryan Cantrill and Adam Leventhal were your hosts. Additional speakers--and predicters--are listed below with their predictions. (If you made predictions, please submit a PR to add or clarify yours)
If we got something wrong or missed something, please file a PR! Our next show will likely be on Monday at 5p Pacific Time on our Discord server; stay tuned to our Mastodon feeds for details, or subscribe to this calendar. We'd love to have you join us, as we always love to hear from new speakers!
| Futurist | 1 year | 3 year | 6 year |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Adam MM:SS |
Tech companies unionizing become mainstream |
HPE acquired... (by HP?) general purpose, open source filesystem based on FDP (flexible data placement) |
Heterogeneous cores / same ISA all on the same die for server CPUs e.g. for various power efficiency profiles. |
|
Bryan MM:SS |
Elon out of Twitter and Tesla (Tesla first); out as CEO of Twitter (forced by investors) | Meta renamed **back** to Facebook; Zuckerberg steps down to focus on Meta as a subdivision | "AI" / "Artificial Intelligence" not terms we use, preferring mechanical metaphors rather than anthropomorphic terms |
|
@tfpk MM:SS |
All good GPT AI systems are expensive enough that their frivolous use declines significantly. It's still used significantly in Academic Misconduct, because it's cheaper than the alternatives. | A new trend, called something stupid like Web3, or Web4, emerges. Probably to do with AI or the "Metaverse". Some people make a lot of money, but time proves it is also a fad. | A large/prestigious university starts teaching CS1 in Rust. Time reveals it is a mistake. |
|
Ben Kimock 26:00 |
Tree(d) Borrows is implemented in Miri. Users are excited that it theoretically permits the &Header pattern, but in aggregate sentiment changes little from Stacked Borrows because it doesn't have much of an impact on how many crates contain aliasing UB. | Rustc has an SSA IR to support more advanced pre-LLVM optimizations in the name of compile time improvements. The Rust same code generates less work for LLVM, but overall the improvement is mostly not felt because most codebases grow in complexity over the same period. | As a result of the work by the Operational Semantics Team, rustc does powerful Rust-specific aliasing optimizations. Rust is widely regarded as a faster language than C and C++. |
| Brian Reiter | Passkeys will be widely available for authentication but have very little traction because of various complexities like the need to create multiple certificates or export them across ecosystems. There will be a high-profile horror stories about losing access to accounts because Passkeys are too secure and also stories about passkey-protected accounts being hijacked anyway through an alternative authentication mechanism. Everyone loses faith and throws up their hands. Google, Microsoft, and Apple are successful with their proprietary push-authenticator app for their services. The rest of the world sticks with passwords, totp, oauth, and saml. | Microsoft will have replaced the legacy Office suite with Electron versions based on the Sharepoint Online code (similar to the current Electron Outlook replacing the legacy Outlook) which will run on Windows, macOS, and Linux. Microsoft announces the end of life plans for the legacy Visual Studio and msc tool chain to focus on VS Code with LLVM/clang, dotnet, rust, java, python, nodejs/typescript as the tentpole toolchains. | The mainstream desktop operating system from Microsoft will have become something resembling ChromeOS but based on Edge and bundles Electron-style Office apps and a VDI client tied to Azure capable of streaming legacy win32 apps -- but is still called Windows. "Windows Azure Cloud Desktop" or something. Windows Classic (NT) as we currently know it is primarily sold by Microsoft as a web service in Azure Desktop to run legacy enterprise apps. Microsoft will no longer sell you Exchange or other Office servers for on-prem. You must run the Azure service. Microsoft has announced that in future only special Enterprise SKUs of Windows client will be available to run on-prem and only in a VM. A bespoke Crostini-style Linux environment -- possibly still Subsystem for Linux -- is available but not the "happy path". |
|
Ian 36:25 |
Salary ranges on almost all US tech job postings, due to legislation in NY, CA, WA, CO (and majority tech jobs being remote-friendly). | General purpose web search engines really struggling with spam, due to large language models making content cheaper to generate and harder to detect. | Apple launches a product in the VR / AR market (roughly in the next 12-24 months), and later (within the 6 years) kills the product line due to lack of adoption. |