diff --git a/docs/01_data_preparation.html b/docs/01_data_preparation.html index 44bd14f60..a884c4a08 100644 --- a/docs/01_data_preparation.html +++ b/docs/01_data_preparation.html @@ -520,11 +520,11 @@

1-1. With DataE 
-2022-10-10 at 08:17:50 | INFO | Retrieving COVID-19 dataset from https://github.com/lisphilar/covid19-sir/data/
-2022-10-10 at 08:17:50 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from COVID-19 Data Hub https://covid19datahub.io/
-2022-10-10 at 08:17:58 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from Our World In Data https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/
-2022-10-10 at 08:18:00 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from Our World In Data https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/
-2022-10-10 at 08:18:00 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from Our World In Data https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/
+2022-10-10 at 08:54:45 | INFO | Retrieving COVID-19 dataset from https://github.com/lisphilar/covid19-sir/data/
+2022-10-10 at 08:54:45 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from COVID-19 Data Hub https://covid19datahub.io/
+2022-10-10 at 08:54:54 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from Our World In Data https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/
+2022-10-10 at 08:54:56 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from Our World In Data https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/
+2022-10-10 at 08:54:56 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from Our World In Data https://github.com/owid/covid-19-data/
@@ -533,7 +533,7 @@

1-1. With DataE 

-<covsirphy.engineering.engineer.DataEngineer at 0x7f0af2c26d60>
+<covsirphy.engineering.engineer.DataEngineer at 0x7fe409795df0>

We can get the all downloaded records as a pandas.DataFrame with DataEngineer().all() method.

@@ -553,37 +553,37 @@

1-1. With DataE 
 <class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
-RangeIndex: 226891 entries, 0 to 226890
+RangeIndex: 226961 entries, 0 to 226960
 Data columns (total 27 columns):
  #   Column                               Non-Null Count   Dtype
 ---  ------                               --------------   -----
- 0   ISO3                                 226891 non-null  category
- 1   Province                             226891 non-null  category
- 2   City                                 226891 non-null  category
- 3   Date                                 226891 non-null  datetime64[ns]
- 4   Cancel_events                        178070 non-null  Float64
- 5   Confirmed                            205577 non-null  Float64
- 6   Contact_tracing                      178013 non-null  Float64
- 7   Country                              224419 non-null  string
- 8   Fatal                                189037 non-null  Float64
- 9   Gatherings_restrictions              178049 non-null  Float64
- 10  Information_campaigns                178044 non-null  Float64
- 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       178056 non-null  Float64
- 12  International_movement_restrictions  178036 non-null  Float64
- 13  Population                           223427 non-null  Float64
+ 0   ISO3                                 226961 non-null  category
+ 1   Province                             226961 non-null  category
+ 2   City                                 226961 non-null  category
+ 3   Date                                 226961 non-null  datetime64[ns]
+ 4   Cancel_events                        178167 non-null  Float64
+ 5   Confirmed                            205651 non-null  Float64
+ 6   Contact_tracing                      178109 non-null  Float64
+ 7   Country                              224493 non-null  string
+ 8   Fatal                                189110 non-null  Float64
+ 9   Gatherings_restrictions              178146 non-null  Float64
+ 10  Information_campaigns                178140 non-null  Float64
+ 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       178153 non-null  Float64
+ 12  International_movement_restrictions  178132 non-null  Float64
+ 13  Population                           223501 non-null  Float64
  14  Product                              120930 non-null  string
- 15  Recovered                            71762 non-null   Float64
- 16  School_closing                       178088 non-null  Float64
- 17  Stay_home_restrictions               177980 non-null  Float64
- 18  Stringency_index                     178005 non-null  Float64
- 19  Testing_policy                       178026 non-null  Float64
- 20  Tests                                86109 non-null   Float64
- 21  Transport_closing                    178042 non-null  Float64
+ 15  Recovered                            71763 non-null   Float64
+ 16  School_closing                       178185 non-null  Float64
+ 17  Stay_home_restrictions               178077 non-null  Float64
+ 18  Stringency_index                     178102 non-null  Float64
+ 19  Testing_policy                       178122 non-null  Float64
+ 20  Tests                                86110 non-null   Float64
+ 21  Transport_closing                    178139 non-null  Float64
  22  Vaccinated_full                      49138 non-null   Float64
  23  Vaccinated_once                      51722 non-null   Float64
  24  Vaccinations                         54420 non-null   Float64
  25  Vaccinations_boosters                27163 non-null   Float64
- 26  Workplace_closing                    178051 non-null  Float64
+ 26  Workplace_closing                    178148 non-null  Float64
 dtypes: Float64(21), category(3), datetime64[ns](1), string(2)
 memory usage: 47.0 MB
@@ -624,8 +624,8 @@

1-1. With DataE 
-2022-10-10 at 08:18:06 | INFO | Retrieving COVID-19 dataset from https://github.com/lisphilar/covid19-sir/data/
-2022-10-10 at 08:18:07 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from COVID-19 Data Hub https://covid19datahub.io/
+2022-10-10 at 08:55:02 | INFO | Retrieving COVID-19 dataset from https://github.com/lisphilar/covid19-sir/data/
+2022-10-10 at 08:55:03 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from COVID-19 Data Hub https://covid19datahub.io/
@@ -816,7 +816,7 @@

1-1. With DataE 

-2022-10-10 at 08:18:10 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from COVID-19 Data Hub https://covid19datahub.io/
+2022-10-10 at 08:55:06 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from COVID-19 Data Hub https://covid19datahub.io/
@@ -1020,37 +1020,37 @@

1-2. With DataD 
 <class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
-RangeIndex: 226891 entries, 0 to 226890
+RangeIndex: 226961 entries, 0 to 226960
 Data columns (total 27 columns):
  #   Column                               Non-Null Count   Dtype
 ---  ------                               --------------   -----
- 0   ISO3                                 226891 non-null  string
- 1   Province                             226891 non-null  string
- 2   City                                 226891 non-null  string
- 3   Date                                 226891 non-null  datetime64[ns]
- 4   Cancel_events                        178070 non-null  Float64
- 5   Confirmed                            205577 non-null  Float64
- 6   Contact_tracing                      178013 non-null  Float64
- 7   Country                              224419 non-null  string
- 8   Fatal                                189037 non-null  Float64
- 9   Gatherings_restrictions              178049 non-null  Float64
- 10  Information_campaigns                178044 non-null  Float64
- 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       178056 non-null  Float64
- 12  International_movement_restrictions  178036 non-null  Float64
- 13  Population                           223427 non-null  Float64
+ 0   ISO3                                 226961 non-null  string
+ 1   Province                             226961 non-null  string
+ 2   City                                 226961 non-null  string
+ 3   Date                                 226961 non-null  datetime64[ns]
+ 4   Cancel_events                        178167 non-null  Float64
+ 5   Confirmed                            205651 non-null  Float64
+ 6   Contact_tracing                      178109 non-null  Float64
+ 7   Country                              224493 non-null  string
+ 8   Fatal                                189110 non-null  Float64
+ 9   Gatherings_restrictions              178146 non-null  Float64
+ 10  Information_campaigns                178140 non-null  Float64
+ 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       178153 non-null  Float64
+ 12  International_movement_restrictions  178132 non-null  Float64
+ 13  Population                           223501 non-null  Float64
  14  Product                              120930 non-null  string
- 15  Recovered                            71762 non-null   Float64
- 16  School_closing                       178088 non-null  Float64
- 17  Stay_home_restrictions               177980 non-null  Float64
- 18  Stringency_index                     178005 non-null  Float64
- 19  Testing_policy                       178026 non-null  Float64
- 20  Tests                                86109 non-null   Float64
- 21  Transport_closing                    178042 non-null  Float64
+ 15  Recovered                            71763 non-null   Float64
+ 16  School_closing                       178185 non-null  Float64
+ 17  Stay_home_restrictions               178077 non-null  Float64
+ 18  Stringency_index                     178102 non-null  Float64
+ 19  Testing_policy                       178122 non-null  Float64
+ 20  Tests                                86110 non-null   Float64
+ 21  Transport_closing                    178139 non-null  Float64
  22  Vaccinated_full                      49138 non-null   Float64
  23  Vaccinated_once                      51722 non-null   Float64
  24  Vaccinations                         54420 non-null   Float64
  25  Vaccinations_boosters                27163 non-null   Float64
- 26  Workplace_closing                    178051 non-null  Float64
+ 26  Workplace_closing                    178148 non-null  Float64
 dtypes: Float64(21), datetime64[ns](1), string(5)
 memory usage: 51.3 MB
@@ -2025,7 +2025,7 @@

2-2. Convert line list to the number of cases data 
-2022-10-10 at 08:19:35 | INFO | Retrieving GIS data from Natural Earth https://www.naturalearthdata.com/
+2022-10-10 at 08:56:38 | INFO | Retrieving GIS data from Natural Earth https://www.naturalearthdata.com/

@@ -2081,8 +2081,8 @@

2-3. Retrieve total population data 
-2022-10-10 at 08:19:38 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from World Population Prospects https://population.un.org/wpp/
-2022-10-10 at 08:19:44 | INFO |         [INFO] 'Province' layer was removed.
+2022-10-10 at 08:56:42 | INFO | Retrieving datasets from World Population Prospects https://population.un.org/wpp/
+2022-10-10 at 08:56:47 | INFO |         [INFO] 'Province' layer was removed.

diff --git a/docs/02_data_engineering.html b/docs/02_data_engineering.html index 0f3d47bf7..43c234cbd 100644 --- a/docs/02_data_engineering.html +++ b/docs/02_data_engineering.html @@ -455,37 +455,37 @@

Data engineering 
 <class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
-RangeIndex: 226891 entries, 0 to 226890
+RangeIndex: 226961 entries, 0 to 226960
 Data columns (total 27 columns):
  #   Column                               Non-Null Count   Dtype
 ---  ------                               --------------   -----
- 0   ISO3                                 226891 non-null  category
- 1   Province                             226891 non-null  category
- 2   City                                 226891 non-null  category
- 3   Date                                 226891 non-null  datetime64[ns]
- 4   Cancel_events                        178070 non-null  Float64
- 5   Confirmed                            205577 non-null  Float64
- 6   Contact_tracing                      178013 non-null  Float64
- 7   Country                              224419 non-null  string
- 8   Fatal                                189037 non-null  Float64
- 9   Gatherings_restrictions              178049 non-null  Float64
- 10  Information_campaigns                178044 non-null  Float64
- 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       178056 non-null  Float64
- 12  International_movement_restrictions  178036 non-null  Float64
- 13  Population                           223427 non-null  Float64
+ 0   ISO3                                 226961 non-null  category
+ 1   Province                             226961 non-null  category
+ 2   City                                 226961 non-null  category
+ 3   Date                                 226961 non-null  datetime64[ns]
+ 4   Cancel_events                        178167 non-null  Float64
+ 5   Confirmed                            205651 non-null  Float64
+ 6   Contact_tracing                      178109 non-null  Float64
+ 7   Country                              224493 non-null  string
+ 8   Fatal                                189110 non-null  Float64
+ 9   Gatherings_restrictions              178146 non-null  Float64
+ 10  Information_campaigns                178140 non-null  Float64
+ 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       178153 non-null  Float64
+ 12  International_movement_restrictions  178132 non-null  Float64
+ 13  Population                           223501 non-null  Float64
  14  Product                              120930 non-null  string
- 15  Recovered                            71762 non-null   Float64
- 16  School_closing                       178088 non-null  Float64
- 17  Stay_home_restrictions               177980 non-null  Float64
- 18  Stringency_index                     178005 non-null  Float64
- 19  Testing_policy                       178026 non-null  Float64
- 20  Tests                                86109 non-null   Float64
- 21  Transport_closing                    178042 non-null  Float64
+ 15  Recovered                            71763 non-null   Float64
+ 16  School_closing                       178185 non-null  Float64
+ 17  Stay_home_restrictions               178077 non-null  Float64
+ 18  Stringency_index                     178102 non-null  Float64
+ 19  Testing_policy                       178122 non-null  Float64
+ 20  Tests                                86110 non-null   Float64
+ 21  Transport_closing                    178139 non-null  Float64
  22  Vaccinated_full                      49138 non-null   Float64
  23  Vaccinated_once                      51722 non-null   Float64
  24  Vaccinations                         54420 non-null   Float64
  25  Vaccinations_boosters                27163 non-null   Float64
- 26  Workplace_closing                    178051 non-null  Float64
+ 26  Workplace_closing                    178148 non-null  Float64
 dtypes: Float64(21), category(3), datetime64[ns](1), string(2)
 memory usage: 47.0 MB

@@ -515,37 +515,37 @@

1. Data cleaning 
 <class 'pandas.core.frame.DataFrame'>
-RangeIndex: 226957 entries, 0 to 226956
+RangeIndex: 227027 entries, 0 to 227026
 Data columns (total 27 columns):
  #   Column                               Non-Null Count   Dtype
 ---  ------                               --------------   -----
- 0   ISO3                                 226957 non-null  category
- 1   Province                             226957 non-null  category
- 2   City                                 226957 non-null  category
- 3   Date                                 226957 non-null  datetime64[ns]
- 4   Cancel_events                        226957 non-null  Float64
- 5   Confirmed                            226957 non-null  Float64
- 6   Contact_tracing                      226957 non-null  Float64
- 7   Country                              226957 non-null  object
- 8   Fatal                                226957 non-null  Float64
- 9   Gatherings_restrictions              226957 non-null  Float64
- 10  Information_campaigns                226957 non-null  Float64
- 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       226957 non-null  Float64
- 12  International_movement_restrictions  226957 non-null  Float64
- 13  Population                           226957 non-null  Float64
- 14  Product                              226957 non-null  object
- 15  Recovered                            226957 non-null  Float64
- 16  School_closing                       226957 non-null  Float64
- 17  Stay_home_restrictions               226957 non-null  Float64
- 18  Stringency_index                     226957 non-null  Float64
- 19  Testing_policy                       226957 non-null  Float64
- 20  Tests                                226957 non-null  Float64
- 21  Transport_closing                    226957 non-null  Float64
- 22  Vaccinated_full                      226957 non-null  Float64
- 23  Vaccinated_once                      226957 non-null  Float64
- 24  Vaccinations                         226957 non-null  Float64
- 25  Vaccinations_boosters                226957 non-null  Float64
- 26  Workplace_closing                    226957 non-null  Float64
+ 0   ISO3                                 227027 non-null  category
+ 1   Province                             227027 non-null  category
+ 2   City                                 227027 non-null  category
+ 3   Date                                 227027 non-null  datetime64[ns]
+ 4   Cancel_events                        227027 non-null  Float64
+ 5   Confirmed                            227027 non-null  Float64
+ 6   Contact_tracing                      227027 non-null  Float64
+ 7   Country                              227027 non-null  object
+ 8   Fatal                                227027 non-null  Float64
+ 9   Gatherings_restrictions              227027 non-null  Float64
+ 10  Information_campaigns                227027 non-null  Float64
+ 11  Internal_movement_restrictions       227027 non-null  Float64
+ 12  International_movement_restrictions  227027 non-null  Float64
+ 13  Population                           227027 non-null  Float64
+ 14  Product                              227027 non-null  object
+ 15  Recovered                            227027 non-null  Float64
+ 16  School_closing                       227027 non-null  Float64
+ 17  Stay_home_restrictions               227027 non-null  Float64
+ 18  Stringency_index                     227027 non-null  Float64
+ 19  Testing_policy                       227027 non-null  Float64
+ 20  Tests                                227027 non-null  Float64
+ 21  Transport_closing                    227027 non-null  Float64
+ 22  Vaccinated_full                      227027 non-null  Float64
+ 23  Vaccinated_once                      227027 non-null  Float64
+ 24  Vaccinations                         227027 non-null  Float64
+ 25  Vaccinations_boosters                227027 non-null  Float64
+ 26  Workplace_closing                    227027 non-null  Float64
 dtypes: Float64(21), category(3), datetime64[ns](1), object(2)
 memory usage: 47.0+ MB
@@ -612,11 +612,11 @@

2. Data transformation - 226952 + 227022 ZWE - - - 2022-10-04 + 2022-10-05 14439018.0 14181450.0 257568.0 @@ -625,24 +625,24 @@

2. Data transformation82994.0 - 226953 + 227023 ZWE - - - 2022-10-05 + 2022-10-06 14439018.0 - 14181450.0 - 257568.0 - 168971.0 - 5603.0 + 14181363.0 + 257655.0 + 169057.0 + 5604.0 82994.0 - 226954 + 227024 ZWE - - - 2022-10-06 + 2022-10-07 14439018.0 14181363.0 257655.0 @@ -651,11 +651,11 @@

2. Data transformation82994.0 - 226955 + 227025 ZWE - - - 2022-10-07 + 2022-10-08 14439018.0 14181363.0 257655.0 @@ -664,11 +664,11 @@

2. Data transformation82994.0 - 226956 + 227026 ZWE - - - 2022-10-08 + 2022-10-09 14439018.0 14181363.0 257655.0 @@ -727,11 +727,11 @@

2. Data transformation - 226952 + 227022 ZWE - - - 2022-10-04 + 2022-10-05 14439018 14181450.0 257568 @@ -740,24 +740,24 @@

2. Data transformation82994.0 - 226953 + 227023 ZWE - - - 2022-10-05 + 2022-10-06 14439018 - 14181450.0 - 257568 - 168971.0 - 5603.0 + 14181363.0 + 257655 + 169057.0 + 5604.0 82994.0 - 226954 + 227024 ZWE - - - 2022-10-06 + 2022-10-07 14439018 14181363.0 257655 @@ -766,11 +766,11 @@

2. Data transformation82994.0 - 226955 + 227025 ZWE - - - 2022-10-07 + 2022-10-08 14439018 14181363.0 257655 @@ -779,11 +779,11 @@

2. Data transformation82994.0 - 226956 + 227026 ZWE - - - 2022-10-08 + 2022-10-09 14439018 14181363.0 257655 @@ -850,16 +850,7 @@

3. Arithmetic operations - +
- - - - - - - + + + + + + + @@ -1097,24 +1097,24 @@

1-2. Define the 1st phase0th -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
 StartEndRtrhosigma1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]StartEndRtrhosigma1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]
Phase2022-01-01 00:00:002022-02-28 00:00:002.6700000.2000000.075000513
1st2022-03-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:005.3300000.4000000.0750002130th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-02-28 00:00:002.6700000.2000000.075000513
1st2022-03-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:005.3300000.4000000.075000213
@@ -1153,19 +1153,19 @@

1-3. Track ODE parameter values - +
- - - - - + + + + + @@ -1178,36 +1178,36 @@

1-3. Track ODE parameter values2022-02-27 00:00:00 -

- - - - + + + + + + - - - - - - + + + + + + - - - - - - + + + + + + - - - - - - + + + + + +
 Rtrhosigma1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]Rtrhosigma1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]
Date2.6700000.2000000.0750005132022-02-27 00:00:002.6700000.2000000.075000513
2022-02-28 00:00:002.6700000.2000000.0750005132022-02-28 00:00:002.6700000.2000000.075000513
2022-03-01 00:00:005.3300000.4000000.0750002132022-03-01 00:00:005.3300000.4000000.075000213
2022-03-02 00:00:005.3300000.4000000.0750002132022-03-02 00:00:005.3300000.4000000.075000213
@@ -1405,46 +1405,46 @@

2-3. Plane of phase-dependent models - +
- - - - - - - + + + + + + + @@ -1459,64 +1459,64 @@

2-3. Plane of phase-dependent models0th -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
 StartEndRtthetakapparhosigmaStartEndRtthetakapparhosigma
Phase2022-01-01 00:00:002022-02-17 00:00:002.50000.00200.00500.20000.0750
1st2022-02-18 00:00:002022-02-23 00:00:005.00000.00020.00500.40000.0750
2nd2022-02-24 00:00:002022-02-28 00:00:001.87000.00020.00500.15000.0750
3rd2022-03-01 00:00:002022-03-07 00:00:005.13000.00020.00300.40000.0750
4th2022-03-08 00:00:002022-03-14 00:00:002.58000.00020.00500.40000.1500
5th2022-03-15 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:002.58000.00000.00500.40000.15000th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-02-17 00:00:002.50000.00200.00500.20000.0750
1st2022-02-18 00:00:002022-02-23 00:00:005.00000.00020.00500.40000.0750
2nd2022-02-24 00:00:002022-02-28 00:00:001.87000.00020.00500.15000.0750
3rd2022-03-01 00:00:002022-03-07 00:00:005.13000.00020.00300.40000.0750
4th2022-03-08 00:00:002022-03-14 00:00:002.58000.00020.00500.40000.1500
5th2022-03-15 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:002.58000.00000.00500.40000.1500
@@ -2276,23 +2276,23 @@

3.3 ODE parameter estimation 
-2022-10-10 at 08:21:17 | INFO |
+2022-10-10 at 08:58:32 | INFO |
 <SIR-F Model: parameter estimation>
-2022-10-10 at 08:21:17 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
+2022-10-10 at 08:58:32 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
-
+
-2022-10-10 at 08:21:52 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 0 min 34 sec
+2022-10-10 at 08:59:02 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 0 min 30 sec
@@ -2340,63 +2340,63 @@

3.3 ODE parameter estimation 
-2022-10-10 at 08:22:44 | INFO |
+2022-10-10 at 09:00:05 | INFO |
 <SIR-F Model: parameter estimation>
-2022-10-10 at 08:22:44 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
+2022-10-10 at 09:00:05 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
-
+
-2022-10-10 at 08:25:47 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 3 min  2 sec
+2022-10-10 at 09:00:05 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
+2022-10-10 at 09:03:20 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 3 min 15 sec
 
 Tau value [min]: 12
@@ -3065,363 +3066,363 @@

4-3. Parameter estimation 
-RMSLE: 0.9703 (overall score for time-series segmentation, tau estimation and ODE parameter estimation)
+RMSLE: 0.8857 (overall score for time-series segmentation, tau estimation and ODE parameter estimation)

@@ -3863,63 +3864,63 @@

4-6. 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1.1 With dataset of recommended servers 
-2022-10-10 at 08:27:06 | INFO |
+2022-10-10 at 09:04:59 | INFO |
 <SIR-F Model: parameter estimation>
-2022-10-10 at 08:27:06 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
+2022-10-10 at 09:04:59 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
-
+
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:25 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 3 min 19 sec
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:27 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 3 min 27 sec
@@ -571,71 +571,71 @@

1.1 With dataset of recommended servers 
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:31 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:35 | ERROR | validation of end failed
@@ -1219,7 +1219,7 @@

2.2 Medicine scenario 
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:31 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:35 | ERROR | validation of end failed

@@ -1250,7 +1250,7 @@

2.3 Vaccine scenario 
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:32 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:36 | ERROR | validation of end failed

@@ -1279,28 +1279,28 @@

2.4 Adjustment of the last dates - +
- - - - - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + @@ -1322,120 +1322,120 @@

2.4 Adjustment of the last datesBaseline -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
   StartEndRtthetakapparhosigmaalpha1 [-]1/alpha2 [day]1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]ODEtauStartEndRtthetakapparhosigmaalpha1 [-]1/alpha2 [day]1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]ODEtau
Scenario0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
Lockdown0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.2500000.0020000.0050000.1000000.0750000.0020002001013SIR-F Model1440
Medicine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.3100000.0020000.0025000.2000000.1500000.00200040057SIR-F Model1440
Vaccine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.7200000.0020000.0030000.1600000.0900000.002000333611SIR-F Model1440Baseline0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
Lockdown0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.2500000.0020000.0050000.1000000.0750000.0020002001013SIR-F Model1440
Medicine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.3100000.0020000.0025000.2000000.1500000.00200040057SIR-F Model1440
Vaccine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.7200000.0020000.0030000.1600000.0900000.002000333611SIR-F Model1440

@@ -1454,10 +1454,10 @@

2.4 Adjustment of the last dates 
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:32 | ERROR | validation of end failed
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:32 | ERROR | validation of end failed
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:32 | ERROR | validation of end failed
-2022-10-10 at 08:30:32 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:37 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:37 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:37 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:08:37 | ERROR | validation of end failed
@@ -1466,28 +1466,28 @@

2.4 Adjustment of the last dates - +
- - - - - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + @@ -1509,120 +1509,120 @@

2.4 Adjustment of the last datesBaseline -

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + + +
   StartEndRtthetakapparhosigmaalpha1 [-]1/alpha2 [day]1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]ODEtauStartEndRtthetakapparhosigmaalpha1 [-]1/alpha2 [day]1/beta [day]1/gamma [day]ODEtau
Scenario0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
Lockdown0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.2500000.0020000.0050000.1000000.0750000.0020002001013SIR-F Model1440
Medicine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.3100000.0020000.0025000.2000000.1500000.00200040057SIR-F Model1440
Vaccine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.7200000.0020000.0030000.1600000.0900000.002000333611SIR-F Model1440Baseline0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
Lockdown0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.2500000.0020000.0050000.1000000.0750000.0020002001013SIR-F Model1440
Medicine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.3100000.0020000.0025000.2000000.1500000.00200040057SIR-F Model1440
Vaccine0th2022-01-01 00:00:002022-01-31 00:00:002.5000000.0020000.0050000.2000000.0750000.002000200513SIR-F Model1440
1st2022-02-01 00:00:002022-06-30 00:00:001.7200000.0020000.0030000.1600000.0900000.002000333611SIR-F Model1440

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ODE parameter prediction 
-2022-10-10 at 08:31:39 | INFO |
+2022-10-10 at 09:09:57 | INFO |
 <SIR-F Model: parameter estimation>
-2022-10-10 at 08:31:39 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
+2022-10-10 at 09:09:57 | INFO | Running optimization with 2 CPUs...
-
+
-2022-10-10 at 08:34:42 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 3 min  2 sec
+2022-10-10 at 09:12:51 | INFO | Completed optimization. Total: 2 min 54 sec
@@ -528,15 +528,15 @@

ODE parameter prediction 
-2022-10-10 at 08:34:50 | ERROR | validation of end failed
-2022-10-10 at 08:34:50 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:13:04 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:13:04 | ERROR | validation of end failed
@@ -1658,143 +1586,143 @@

1. Time-series prediction withOUT indicators - +
- - - - + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + + - - - - - + + + + +
 PCfeatureloadingtypePCfeatureloadingtype
01Tests0.393498best01Tests0.393498best
11Contact_tracing-0.360204weak11Contact_tracing-0.360204weak
21Vaccinated_full0.362513weak21Vaccinated_full0.362513weak
31Vaccinated_once0.378863weak31Vaccinated_once0.378863weak
41Vaccinations0.316581weak41Vaccinations0.316581weak
51Vaccinations_boosters0.309962weak51Vaccinations_boosters0.309962weak
62Stringency_index-0.517198best62Stringency_index-0.517198best
72International_movement_restrictions-0.505709weak72International_movement_restrictions-0.505709weak
83School_closing-0.550877best83School_closing-0.550877best
94Workplace_closing0.640622best94Workplace_closing0.640622best
105Cancel_events0.536279best105Cancel_events0.536279best
116Information_campaigns-0.605424best116Information_campaigns-0.605424best
127Transport_closing-0.550400best127Transport_closing-0.550400best
138Testing_policy0.595597best138Testing_policy0.595597best
148Gatherings_restrictions-0.404425weak148Gatherings_restrictions-0.404425weak
159Internal_movement_restrictions0.600160best159Internal_movement_restrictions0.600160best
1610Stay_home_restrictions0.599752best1610Stay_home_restrictions0.599752best

@@ -2466,7 +2394,7 @@

2-2. Future values of indicators 
-2022-10-10 at 08:35:24 | ERROR | validation of end failed
-2022-10-10 at 08:35:25 | ERROR | validation of end failed
-2022-10-10 at 08:35:25 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:13:49 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:13:49 | ERROR | validation of end failed
+2022-10-10 at 09:13:49 | ERROR | validation of end failed
@@ -2999,35 +2981,35 @@

3. Compare scenarios max(Infected) argmax(Infected) - Confirmed on 06Dec2022 - Infected on 06Dec2022 - Fatal on 06Dec2022 + Confirmed on 08Dec2022 + Infected on 08Dec2022 + Fatal on 08Dec2022 Baseline - 3563952.0 + 3628645.0 2022-08-09 - 22061044 - 143358.0 - 48209.0 + 22243423 + 54975.0 + 47604.0 Predicted - 3563952.0 + 3628645.0 2022-08-09 - 22014761 - 127220.0 - 47879.0 + 22459546 + 123902.0 + 48008.0 Predicted_with_X - 3563952.0 + 3628645.0 2022-08-09 - 22061880 - 143247.0 - 48211.0 + 22243778 + 54966.0 + 47613.0 @@ -3035,7 +3017,7 @@

3. Compare scenarios

Thank you!

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