From 0a91faffcf496924110755c56632832f6b994106 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: Sebastian Funk Date: Mon, 8 Jul 2024 10:28:11 +0100 Subject: [PATCH] slides --- slides/covid_20240708.html | 2277 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++----- 1 file changed, 1971 insertions(+), 306 deletions(-) diff --git a/slides/covid_20240708.html b/slides/covid_20240708.html index fb02428..0669a19 100644 --- a/slides/covid_20240708.html +++ b/slides/covid_20240708.html @@ -1,325 +1,1142 @@ - - - - - - - - - - - - Modelling and COVID-19 - - - - - - - - - - - - + + + + - + + Modelling and COVID-19 + + + +html, body, div, span, applet, object, iframe, +h1, h2, h3, h4, h5, h6, p, blockquote, pre, +a, abbr, acronym, address, big, cite, code, +del, dfn, em, img, ins, kbd, q, s, samp, +small, strike, strong, sub, sup, tt, var, +b, u, i, center, +dl, dt, dd, ol, ul, li, +fieldset, form, label, legend, +table, caption, tbody, tfoot, thead, tr, th, td, +article, aside, canvas, details, embed, +figure, figcaption, footer, header, hgroup, +main, menu, nav, output, ruby, section, summary, +time, mark, audio, video { +margin: 0; +padding: 0; +border: 0; +font-size: 100%; +font: inherit; +vertical-align: baseline; +} + +article, aside, details, figcaption, figure, +footer, header, hgroup, main, menu, nav, section { +display: block; +} + + + + + + + + +
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Modelling and COVID-19

Policy influence, lessons learned and pandemic preparedness

Sebastian Funk

Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, LSHTM

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COVID-19 Modelling in the UK

Timeline of COVID-19 in the UK

Hospital admissions

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    • LD1: Initial lockdown
    • LD2: Lockdown in response to autumn wave
    • LD3: Lockdown in response to emergence of alpha variant
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      Situational awareness

      Planning scenarios

      • Relaxation of restrictions
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      • Impact of new interventions (e.g. home testing)
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      • Impact of new interventions (e.g. home testing)
      • Impact of vaccines

      Epidemiological changes

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      Epidemiological changes

      Structure of policy advice in the UK

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Modelling in the UK was underpinned by data

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    • Large amounts of data in the UK, from the national to very local scale. Data publicly available, machine-readable, downloadable and ready for analysis.
    • Data (combined with models) was used to generate insights for policy.
    • Modelling can help inform data collection
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      Lessons learned: Data

      Need infrastructure for rapid collection, cleaning, harmonisation, storage, sharing and publication of data.

      Also a clear protocol for maximising the scope and amount of data that can be shared privately and publicly.

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Lessons learned: Modelling

Policy makers should not have to rely on outputs from a single model.

Need to have sustainable structure in place that ensures constructive dialogue between policy makers and modellers.

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Lessons learned: Modelling

Pandemic preparedness: Tools

We are working with WHO, CDC etc. to develop software tools for analysis and modelling of outbreak data.

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Pandemic preparedness: Training

We are developing training material and courses for modelling in outbreaks.

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https://epiverse-trace.github.io/learn.html
https://nfidd.github.io/nfidd/

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https://epiverse-trace.github.io/learn.html
https://nfidd.github.io/nfidd/

Thank you

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Thank you

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