predict_home_score.ipynb

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   "outputs": [],
   "source": [
    "import pandas as pd\n",
    "import numpy as np\n",
    "from time import time\n",
    "from sklearn.ensemble import RandomForestRegressor\n",
    "from sklearn.model_selection import GridSearchCV\n",
    "\n",
    "import matplotlib.pyplot as plt\n",
    "from IPython.display import set_matplotlib_formats\n",
    "set_matplotlib_formats('svg')\n",
    "%matplotlib inline\n",
    "plt.style.use('ggplot')\n",
    "\n",
    "from features.data_provider import get_train_test_wc_dataset, get_feature_columns, get_whole_dataset"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 3,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "Dataset length 39008\n",
      "Dataset complete cases length 6676\n",
      "Whole train set length:  5601\n",
      "Whole test set length:  1075\n",
      "Whole WC set length:  128\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "X_train, y_train, X_test, y_test, X_wc, y_wc = get_train_test_wc_dataset(\"home_score\")"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 13,
   "metadata": {
    "scrolled": true
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   "outputs": [
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   ],
   "source": [
    "plt.figure(figsize=(20, 6))\n",
    "fig, axes = plt.subplots(nrows=1, ncols=3, figsize=(12, 4))\n",
    "pd.value_counts(y_train).sort_index().plot.bar(ax=axes[0])\n",
    "pd.value_counts(y_test).sort_index().plot.bar(ax=axes[1])\n",
    "pd.value_counts(y_wc).sort_index().plot.bar(ax=axes[2])"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 21,
   "metadata": {},
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   "source": [
    "def get_feature_importance(clf):\n",
    "    zipped = sorted(zip(get_feature_columns(), clf.feature_importances_), key = lambda t: t[1], reverse=True)\n",
    "    for feature, importance in zipped:\n",
    "        print(f\"{feature}: {importance}\")\n",
    "        \n",
    "def run_grid_search(clf, param_grid, Xtrain, ytrain, Xtest, ytest, X_wc, y_wc, custom_report_for_model=None):\n",
    "    grid_search = GridSearchCV(clf, param_grid=param_grid)\n",
    "    start = time()\n",
    "    grid_search.fit(Xtrain, ytrain)\n",
    "    print(\"TRAIN SET METRICS:\")\n",
    "    print(\"SCORE: \", end='')\n",
    "    y_pred = grid_search.predict(Xtrain)\n",
    "    y_pred = np.around(y_pred)\n",
    "    print(sum(y_pred == ytrain) / len(Xtrain))\n",
    "    print(\"BEST PARAMS: \", grid_search.best_params_)\n",
    "    print()\n",
    "    print()\n",
    "    \n",
    "    print(\"TEST SET METRICS:\")\n",
    "    print(\"SCORE: \", end='')\n",
    "    y_pred = grid_search.predict(Xtest)\n",
    "    y_pred = np.around(y_pred)\n",
    "    print(sum(y_pred == ytest) / len(Xtest))\n",
    "        \n",
    "    print()\n",
    "    print()\n",
    "    print(\"WC SET METRICS:\")\n",
    "    print(\"SCORE: \", end='')\n",
    "    y_pred = grid_search.predict(X_wc)\n",
    "    y_pred = np.around(y_pred)\n",
    "    print(sum(y_pred == y_wc) / len(X_wc))\n",
    "    \n",
    "    print()\n",
    "    print()\n",
    "    if custom_report_for_model:\n",
    "        custom_report_for_model(grid_search.best_estimator_)\n",
    "    return grid_search.best_estimator_"
   ]
  },
  {
   "cell_type": "code",
   "execution_count": 23,
   "metadata": {},
   "outputs": [
    {
     "name": "stdout",
     "output_type": "stream",
     "text": [
      "TRAIN SET METRICS:\n",
      "SCORE: 0.35154436707730763\n",
      "BEST PARAMS:  {'max_depth': 8, 'max_features': 'sqrt', 'min_samples_leaf': 1, 'n_estimators': 1000}\n",
      "\n",
      "\n",
      "TEST SET METRICS:\n",
      "SCORE: 0.33488372093023255\n",
      "\n",
      "\n",
      "WC SET METRICS:\n",
      "SCORE: 0.3125\n",
      "\n",
      "\n",
      "elo_diff: 0.15060762667789346\n",
      "rating_diff: 0.061760671296307815\n",
      "potential_diff: 0.05935734591657141\n",
      "dribbling_diff: 0.04855158534287935\n",
      "reactions_diff: 0.045606295596153264\n",
      "crossing_diff: 0.040455431509177124\n",
      "away_goal_mean: 0.0361665633551327\n",
      "internationl_repuatiotion_diff: 0.03445505914873491\n",
      "short_passing_diff: 0.03187659703794553\n",
      "finishing_diff: 0.03184211928987426\n",
      "ball_control_diff: 0.02780295385952649\n",
      "long_passing_diff: 0.02618665993527883\n",
      "long_shots_diff: 0.025600081652851367\n",
      "marking_diff: 0.02258111650478372\n",
      "shot_power_diff: 0.021791267594708213\n",
      "standing_tackle_diff: 0.020415506767945336\n",
      "fk_accuracy_diff: 0.02029577505082857\n",
      "home_goals_with_away: 0.019622431042058186\n",
      "gk_diving_diff: 0.01949378269551427\n",
      "height_diff: 0.019197103470628467\n",
      "home_goal_mean: 0.018641500747357036\n",
      "penalties_diff: 0.018033005750320918\n",
      "sprint_speed_diff: 0.0173468975791267\n",
      "gk_kicking_diff: 0.01720270357432255\n",
      "heading_accuracy_diff: 0.01655410792808016\n",
      "goal_diff_with_away: 0.015089777096324907\n",
      "weak_foot_diff: 0.015040458557871944\n",
      "age_diff: 0.014853886033140744\n",
      "acceleration_diff: 0.014339350832572643\n",
      "gk_handling_diff: 0.0138451119716111\n",
      "stamina_diff: 0.013263637302846442\n",
      "weight_diff: 0.012876825009985195\n",
      "strength_diff: 0.012779927130039115\n",
      "aggression_diff: 0.012297132584935614\n",
      "away_goals_with_home: 0.01214981848661277\n",
      "gk_reflexes_diff: 0.012019885670058721\n"
     ]
    }
   ],
   "source": [
    "clf = RandomForestRegressor(oob_score=True, bootstrap=True, n_jobs=-1)\n",
    "\n",
    "param_grid = {\"n_estimators\": [1000],\n",
    "              \"max_depth\": [3,5,8,None],\n",
    "              \"min_samples_leaf\": [1,3,5,7],\n",
    "              \"max_features\": [\"sqrt\"]}\n",
    "best_clf = run_grid_search(clf, param_grid,\n",
    "                             X_train, y_train, \n",
    "                             X_test, y_test, \n",
    "                             X_wc, y_wc,\n",
    "                             custom_report_for_model=get_feature_importance)"
   ]
  }
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