diff --git a/.github/data-storage/changes_db.json b/.github/data-storage/changes_db.json index 9e26dfee..ccd42a32 100644 --- a/.github/data-storage/changes_db.json +++ b/.github/data-storage/changes_db.json @@ -1 +1,18 @@ -{} \ No newline at end of file +{ + "EpiQMUL": [ + { + "model": "SEIR_QMUL", + "changes": [ + "previsioni/EpiQMUL-SEIR_QMUL/2023_49.csv" + ] + } + ], + "ISI": [ + { + "model": "FluABCaster", + "changes": [ + "previsioni/ISI-FluABCaster/2023_49.csv" + ] + } + ] +} \ No newline at end of file diff --git a/README.en.md b/README.en.md index a3ef26ca..4355bef2 100644 --- a/README.en.md +++ b/README.en.md @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ [![it](https://img.shields.io/badge/lang-it-yellow.svg)](https://github.com/Predizioni-Epidemiologiche-Italia/Influcast/blob/main/README.md) -__Influcast__ is the first Italian hub for epidemiological forecasts that aggregates estimates produced by different research teams about the future trends of seasonal influenza at both national and regional levels. The project is coordinated and maintained by the [ISI Foundation](https://www.isi.it/en/home) in Turin. +__Influcast__ is the first Italian hub for epidemiological forecasts that aggregates estimates produced by different research teams about the future trends of influenza-like-illnesses at both national and regional levels. The project is coordinated and maintained by the [ISI Foundation](https://www.isi.it/en/home) in Turin. To view the latest forecasts, visit the project's [website](https://influcast.org/it/). @@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ Details regarding the format and the methods of data upload are outlined in the For any questions regarding joining Influcast, feel free to contact us via [email](mailto:influcast@isi.it). ### How does Influcast work? -During the influenza season, participating teams weekly submit probabilistic forecasts from their models regarding the influenza incidence for the upcoming four weeks. Specifically, Influcast considers the number of reported cases from the network of sentinel doctors across Italy as the target variable for the forecasts. This data is communicated every Friday by the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS) through the Flunews bulletin. The incidence data published by the ISS is for the previous week, while the update of the Influcast platform occurs on the following Tuesday, allowing the teams some time to process the new data and calibrate their models. Consequently, the forecasts published on Influcast on Tuesdays pertain to the previous week (for which there isn't yet a consolidated public data), the current week, and the two subsequent weeks. +During the influenza season, participating teams weekly submit probabilistic forecasts from their models regarding influenza-like-illness incidence for the upcoming four weeks. Specifically, Influcast considers the number of reported cases from the network of sentinel doctors across Italy as the target variable for the forecasts. This data is communicated every Friday by the Italian National Institute of Health (ISS) through the RespiVirNet bulletin. The incidence data published by the ISS is for the previous week, while the update of the Influcast platform occurs on the following Tuesday, allowing the teams some time to process the new data and calibrate their models. Consequently, the forecasts published on Influcast on Tuesdays pertain to the previous week (for which there isn't yet a consolidated public data), the current week, and the two subsequent weeks. The forecasts from individual models are displayed alongside historical data, enabling the perspective of each model on the short-term evolution of influenza incidence in Italy and its regions to be captured. Finally, the forecasts from each model are combined to produce an ensemble prediction . diff --git a/README.md b/README.md index 4ef87b63..0c9b734f 100644 --- a/README.md +++ b/README.md @@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ [![en](https://img.shields.io/badge/lang-en-red.svg)](https://github.com/Predizioni-Epidemiologiche-Italia/Influcast/blob/main/README.en.md) -__Influcast__ è il primo hub italiano di previsioni epidemiologiche che aggrega predizioni prodotte da diversi team di ricerca sul futuro andamento dell’influenza stagionale a livello nazionale e regionale. Il progetto è coordinato e mantenuto dalla [Fondazione ISI](https://www.isi.it/en/home) di Torino. +__Influcast__ è il primo hub italiano di previsioni epidemiologiche che aggrega predizioni prodotte da diversi team di ricerca sul futuro andamento delle sindromi simil-influenzali a livello nazionale e regionale. Il progetto è coordinato e mantenuto dalla [Fondazione ISI](https://www.isi.it/en/home) di Torino. Per visualizzare le ultime previsioni, visita la [pagina web](https://influcast.org/it/) del progetto. @@ -16,9 +16,9 @@ I dettagli riguardanti il formato e le modalità di caricamento dei dati sono di Per domande sull'adesione a Influcast, contattaci tramite [e-mail](mailto:influcast@isi.it). ### Come funziona Influcast? -Durante la stagione influenzale, i team aderenti inviano ogni settimana le previsioni probabilistiche dei loro modelli sull’incidenza influenzale nelle future quattro settimane. In particolare, Influcast considera il numero di casi riportati dalla rete di medici sentinella presenti sul territorio italiano come variabile target per le previsioni. Questo dato viene comunicato ogni venerdì dall’Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) tramite il bollettino Flunews. Il dato di incidenza pubblicato da ISS è relativo alla settimana precedente, mentre l’aggiornamento della piattaforma Influcast avviene il martedì successivo all’aggiornamento, consentendo ai team di disporre di un intervallo di tempo per elaborare il nuovo dato e calibrare i modelli. Di conseguenza, le previsioni pubblicate il martedì su Influcast si riferiscono alla settimana precedente (per cui non esiste ancora un dato consolidato pubblico), alla settimana in corso e alle due successive. +Durante la stagione influenzale, i team aderenti inviano ogni settimana le previsioni probabilistiche dei loro modelli sull’incidenza delle sindromi simil-influenzali nelle future quattro settimane. In particolare, Influcast considera il numero di casi riportati dalla rete di medici sentinella presenti sul territorio italiano come variabile target per le previsioni. Questo dato viene comunicato ogni venerdì dall’Istituto Superiore di Sanità (ISS) tramite il bollettino RespiVirNet. Il dato di incidenza pubblicato da ISS è relativo alla settimana precedente, mentre l’aggiornamento della piattaforma Influcast avviene il martedì successivo all’aggiornamento, consentendo ai team di disporre di un intervallo di tempo per elaborare il nuovo dato e calibrare i modelli. Di conseguenza, le previsioni pubblicate il martedì su Influcast si riferiscono alla settimana precedente (per cui non esiste ancora un dato consolidato pubblico), alla settimana in corso e alle due successive. -Le previsioni dei singoli modelli vengono visualizzate insieme ai dati storici, consentendo di cogliere la prospettiva di ciascun modello sull'evoluzione dell'incidenza influenzale nel breve termine in Italia e nelle sue regioni. Infine, le previsioni di ciascun modello vengono combinate in modo da produrre una predizione di ensemble. +Le previsioni dei singoli modelli vengono visualizzate insieme ai dati storici, consentendo di cogliere la prospettiva di ciascun modello sull'evoluzione dell'incidenza delle sindromi simil-influenzali nel breve termine in Italia e nelle sue regioni. Infine, le previsioni di ciascun modello vengono combinate in modo da produrre una predizione di ensemble. ### Sorgenti dati Influcast utilizza i dati elaborati e resi disponibili in formato machine readable all'interno di questa repository: https://github.com/fbranda/influnet diff --git a/previsioni/ISI-FluABCaster/2023_49.csv b/previsioni/ISI-FluABCaster/2023_49.csv new file mode 100644 index 00000000..608a8343 --- /dev/null +++ b/previsioni/ISI-FluABCaster/2023_49.csv @@ -0,0 +1,1657 @@ +anno,settimana,luogo,tipo_valore,id_valore,orizzonte,valore +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.010,1,9.081885402879411 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.010,2,7.311858540363762 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.010,3,6.256459356016286 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.010,4,5.12297231430049 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.025,1,9.42527921909425 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.025,2,7.744644157922779 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.025,3,6.806394406514538 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.025,4,5.347403777386591 +2023,49,IT,quantile,0.050,1,9.86018681944636 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